Is India's calculated wait-and-watch stand purposeful or an attempt to find a prominent role for itself in dealing with Afghan affairs?
Afghanistan, having a population of 3.84 crore, a per capita GDP of $580 and an average annual individual income of 14 lakh in Afghan currency (2020 figures), was not an Islamic country to begin with. It was not fully under the control of the British either. It is an irony that August 18 is observed as the 102nd Independence Day of this country that takes pride only in taking revenge,if a prominent dialogue in a Rambo blockbuster is to be believed.
World Bank data indicates that Afghanistan is one of the six poorest countries and that only Somalia, Burundi and Sierra Leone have a lower GDP per head. But the population growth of 2.33 per cent (fertility rate of 4.55 births per female) can be adjudged definitely on the higher side.
The ethnic groups of Pashtun,Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks, speaking mainly Dari and Pashto languages, used to inhabit four major territories of Balkh, Herat, Ghazni and Kabul.
The Pashtuns or Pathans who primarily followed Jewish, Buddhist and Hindu religions till the 8th or 9th century began converting to Islam with the advent of acts of loot and sacrilege perpetrated by foreign tribal and non-tribal chieftains and kings such as Ghenghis Khan of Mongolia. Ahmed Shad Durrani is considered as the ablest of them, though.
Presently, this beautiful and enchanting country having a tough terrain with immense metallic and opium production potential comprises 99.7 per cent Muslims, of whom 88.9 per cent are Sunnis — same as in Pakistan but diagrammatically opposite to Iran where Shias are in the majority.
When Islam began dominating, the number of Sikhs and Hindus was bound to register a rapid fall, so much so that their combined strength was barely one thousand according to the last count. Now, exactly 655 Sikhs and Hindus are being evacuated.
On 15th August, when India was celebrating the 75th anniversary of independence, co-incidentally in Afghanistan, it was a different ball game, a different kind of liberation that was happening.President Ashraf Ghani lost no time in fleeing with close associates and lots of cash. His predecessor Hamid Karjai stayed back and is now getting closer to old foe Abdullah Abdullah, the outgoing CEO.
While shrewd, sophisticated and westernised Abdulla has declared that God will decide the fate of the now-former President, a statement from Karjai is very much awaited. One will not be surprised if their hand is later discovered in the ‘return’ of the Neo-Taliban.
Is Afghanistan in the doldrums again? What would happen to this cold, dry fruit- and opium-producing mountainous country, now that a “non-peaceful transfer” of power has become reality?
Though August 31 is slated to be the ‘D’ date for ultimate pullout by the US, the UK,France and Germany,Taliban or Talb—e-Ilam (literal meaning — seekers of knowledge) were closely watching and following the developments from their strongholds in many pockets of Afghanistan and offered bases to a handful of friendly Islamic countries. China,meanwhile, has made it clear to have friendly ties with the new regime. Pakistan, for obvious reasons, has kept herself subdued or may have consciously decided to maintain a low profile.
The facade of the Doha talks was arranged in a haste, by purposely sidelining India.India's late participation in “apology to talks”,at the relatively low level of a Joint Secretary, proves that its Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam policy received a setback. Despite her two-decades-long involvement in the re-development efforts, this strange country is still to get out of drugs, arms and ammunition and an ever-ready Inclination to fight for the cause of Islam.
Was India’s slow but calculated wait-and-watch stand purposeful or was it due to her utter helplessness in the rapidly changing scenario? India will have to be more proactive given the large presence of Afghans in India.
Only the passage of time will tell if the bold act of Pakistan to recognise Taliban or the complete silence of the entire Islamic world has paid off.
in the emerging scenario,a vital buffer State is Iran and it may be slipping out of India’s horizon. Iran may choose to react after getting a sense of what is happening in Afghanistan; that much can be expected after the recent change of guard in Tehran. The stand of Israel, in view of rapid developments in the Islamic world, will have to be also watched,particularly after her successful diplomatic ties with UAE and Morocco that were reportedly brokered by the US.
(The writer is a retired IAS officer and former Chief Secretary, Government of Sikkim. The views expressed are personal.
