India’s handling of the Afghan issue will decide the credibility of the Taliban rule

Between the last day of August and through the month of September, global attention will shift to India insofar as the United Nations formal reaction to the power shift in Afghanistan is concerned. As the current head of the United Nations Security Council, India has set the tone for the world’s opinion on matters related to the Taliban and terrorism. As chair of the Taliban Sanctions Committee, India’s role will again be crucial. Hitherto, it was said that various blocs were keeping India away from talks over Afghanistan. The reference is to Russia’s extended troika meeting with Pakistan, China and the US, and the separate confabulations between Russia, Iran, China and Pakistan. India also did not figure in the American initiative to organise a grouping of Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan as well as China’s initiative for a closed dialogue with Russia, Iran and Pakistan. Both are about discussing regional support for the Afghan peace process and shaping the contours of a post-settlement Afghanistan. Naturally, these groups and blocs, unlike the UN panels, do not have any official standing and are able to play only the role of influencers. The United Nations Security Council’s formal cognisance of the Afghan situation came about when India convened two meetings under its presidency, asking the world to immediately act on the humanitarian situation Afghanistan faces. Under its charge, a statement was issued by the UNSC dropping the reference to the Taliban while asking the Afghan groups not to support terrorists operating on their territory even though an earlier statement had referred to the Taliban.

This is the first, formal indication that the wheels within the Security Council are turning to formulate a policy resolution on the Afghan affair. The Taliban eagerly await what the UN has to say, well aware that there are several questions and issues pending that will determine how far the world body is willing to accommodate it and on what conditions. August 31 is when the deadline expires for the US to completely withdraw from Afghanistan. The month of September is crucial for three things. One, the current meetings of the various Taliban factions will need to reach an understanding on the formation of a governance council and requesting world recognition. Two, the UN Taliban Sanctions Committee with India in the chair will meet on terror sanctions. Three, the United Nations General Assembly session begins in September where India is expected to articulate its policy on Afghanistan. If the Taliban have made a formal overture to India — which continues to be watchful but silent — it is perhaps because they are not unaware of the challenges they face, including the recognition of the ‘Islamic Emirate’ of Afghanistan, the status of the current Afghan envoy to the UN, the issue of minority and women’s rights, shelter to terror groups inside Afghanistan; in short, the factors that stand between the Taliban and its legitimisation by the UN.