Considering the ideological baggage of Rajapaksas, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya has his task cut out if he wants to keep peace prevail in the island nation. While the Sinhala majority who voted him to power calls him ‘the savior of their country’, there is a large section of minorities, Muslims and Tamils, who are very apprehensive of hardcore Sinhala groups gaining strength from his presidency. Besides quickly revamping the economy to address the rising unemployment rate, he needs to allay the fears of Islamophobia
Gotabaya Rajapaksa, brother of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, has become the eighth President of Sri Lanka. Nearly 16 million people decided the fate of 35 candidates in the presidential election held on November 16. And this election was fought mainly on two issues: national security and economy. And, the final electoral battle was centred around only two candidates: Gotabaya of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP or People’s Party) and Sajith Premadasa of the United National Party (UNP). The first presidential election that took place after the ghastly terror attack in April this year on the Easter recorded 83.72 per cent of voter turnout, the highest ever in the country’s presidential election.
This election in fact forced the Sri Lankan voters into a difficult situation: They had to choose between the return of the Rajapaksa family rule and the continuance of the incumbent regime with a new President. Finally when the results came, what the international community has seen is the return of the Rajapaksa clan with Gotabaya winning 52.25 per cent of the total votes, 10 per cent more than Premadasa, who was serving as the Housing Minister of the outgoing Government. Gotabaya, a former Lieutenant Colonel and country’s wartime Defence Secretary, won most votes from Sinhala-dominated South, whereas his rival candidate secured more than 80 per cent of the vote share in the districts across northern and eastern provinces largely populated by the Tamil and Muslim minorities of the country.
Political analysts say that Gotabaya’s coming to power might herald a new phase of “authoritarian populism” to Sri Lanka. But what has complicated Gotabaya’s presidency is the historic 19th Amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution which came into effect on May 15, 2015. This amendment has clearly delineated the powers of the President and the Parliament. It has clipped the powers of the President. As per this amendment, Gotabaya will have to share power with the Prime Minister. It has indeed empowered the Parliament which had been long subordinate to the President.
While taking his oath, Gotabaya made the objective of his presidency clear: “I consider the foremost responsibility of my Government is to ensure the national security of my country. We will rebuild the state security machineries, to secure the country from terrorism, underworld activities, robbers, extortionists.” Giving priority to national security is fine, but in the process, targeting particular communities and ethnic groups may undermine the very legitimacy of Sri Lanka’s established democratic ethos.
When Mahinda took oath as the Prime Minister after Ranil Wickremesinghe’s resignation, the new set-up was designed to re-energise former Army veteran Gotabaya’s grip on power. As he continues as the Prime Minister in a caretaker Government until general elections next year, both the brothers will get enough opportunity to expand the family hold on power and most importantly, to reset the historic 19th Amendment of the Constitution. Today many in Sri Lanka have apprehensions that the Rajapaksas might revoke this amendment to at least lift the two term limitations on the office of the President and empowering the President with more powers. In fact, Mahinda aired his opinion in this direction, immediately after his brother’s election to the office of the President: “We will be studying the provisions of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution and planning our immediate programme of action accordingly.” This indicates that the ruling People’s Party and Rajapaksa loyalists will demand a return of the absolutism of the presidency. During Mahinda’s time, Sri Lankan had seen full blown narratives of populism, nationalism and authoritarianism at its peak that had simply retarded the constitutional development of the island nation.
At this juncture, one must know what exactly has been heralded by the 19th Amendment to the Constitution in Sri Lanka. It has introduced long-term changes in the Sri Lankan political system which was pending for years. The term of the President has been reduced from six to five years and the two-term limit fixed. But the President can no longer dissolve the Parliament before it completes four and half year of its terms, unless it is so requested by the two-thirds of its members. Also presidential immunity from the suits has been marginally removed by enlarging the Supreme Court’s fundamental rights jurisdiction to the official acts of the President. What all these demonstrate is that they all restricts presidential discretions and on the other hand, strengthens the separation of powers by bringing forth fixed terms for both the President and the Parliament. Henceforth, there are enough good reasons for both the Rajapaksas to view the 19th Amendment as a stumbling block to their long family rule over Sri Lanka.
Around the same time, one needs to see how the Opposition parties are plagued by internal rivalry and sheer divisions within their rank and file. And to add fuel to the fire, the main Opposition party, the UNP, is fighting in open for its top leadership, particularly between its two prominent camps, one led by Wickremsinghe and the other by Premadasa. At present, the Genereral Secretary of the UNP is writing to the Speaker of the Parliament to make Wickremsinghe the leader of the Opposition, while nearly 40 MPs are backing Premadasa for the same post. In an atmosphere of such divided political Opposition, the Rajapaksas would be surely getting a golden opportunity to consolidate their power base at the top, in the offices of both the President and the Prime Minister.
Looking at the complex power play in the neighbouring island nation, India must be resetting its goal and agenda to renew its relationship with the Rajapaksas. Mahinda is an old veteran and adept political player who had the experience of running the nation during its most turbulent phase. And, his brother is no novice as he served as the Defence Secretary during its recent civil war period. Sensing the Tamil question, India must see to it that a resetting in the bilateral relations is done as quickly as possible. Much beyond the old contentious issues between the two neighbours, India must understand that Sri Lanka is situated at a very strategic geopolitical point from where the latter has more bargaining power than us. And the earlier experience of “China-tilt” of the Rajapaksas, now Modi regime in Delhi should rediscover more opportunities to engage Colombo with friendly partners such as Japan to minimise the Beijing effect in future. In this long-drawn relationship, India could better pose itself more as a close relative than merely as a trade partner. Keeping in mind Sri Lanka’s security concerns, India should be sensitive enough to see that traditional bonhomie between the two plays more than simply displaying its big brother attitude in the days to come.
This election has brought two distinct perspectives to the Sri Lankans: One that the Sinhala majority has voted a man to power whom they view as the savior of their country. He was the one who spearheaded the military campaign during the time of Mahinda’s presidency to put an end to the monstrous LTTE terror once propelled by deadly Prabhakaran. Certainly, he deserves full credit for the victory over nearly three decades old terror group that almost created a threat to the survival of Sri Lanka’s sovereignty. However, on the sidelines of this military campaign, there were allegations against him for massive violations of human rights. On the other hand, today the minorities, particularly the Muslims are very apprehensive of his presidency as they feel they may be targeted by the hardcore Sinhala groups. This may so happen as the deadly Easter bombings in April was carried out by the Islamic State. Since then many hard-line groups in the country are targeting the Muslims thinking they were harbouring jihadists. Along with this, the Tamils in the North and the East of Sri Lanka had outrightly rejected Gotabaya’s candidature in this election, apprehending the iron-fisted regime he and his brother brought during the civil war.
What is expected from Gotabaya is to reach out to all communities of the country, irrespective of their race, religion and ethnicity. This will indeed prove his critics and mainly the Opposition wrong, particularly those who are advocating the return of a Singhala authoritarian populism under him. To be a sensible and politically shrewd statesman, he needs to quickly revamp the economy, address the rising unemployment, allay fears of Islamophobia and bring home a congenial environment to strike a deal with the immediate neighbours of the country.
Nevertheless, Gotabaya’s presidency will be closely watched by both the international community and by his fellow citizens. One Buddhist monk called him “Hitler” and his own brother Basil Rajapaksa termed him “Terminator” who would end corruption and mismanagement prevailed across the nation. It is for Gotabaya to prove his detractors wrong and lead the island country to a new height of peace and inclusive development. Precisely, he must avoid swinging back to a hyper-presidential state armed with unbridled powers of the Mahinda era. It is better to preserve the current state of democratic form of constitutional politics.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
