The islands of prosperity will find it difficult to survive in a sea of deprivation and dissonance

Globally there are several health and economic crises. They are not always stable geographically. As the health crisis of one region recedes, it could surface in another. Same with economic crises. Not enough data is available for any cogent reflection or scientific analysis. Yet, for insights, analyse we must. The bottom line is clear: health crises and economic crises are in many ways interlinked. The economic crises reduce the resources available and the health crises impede any long-range view. In such a situation, power play becomes inevitable and unabashed. The sectors and conglomerates which have gained out of the pandemic are being increasingly identified. The pharmaceutical industry has gained like never before. Some financial investors with a flair for investment have struck it rich, again, like never before. In spite of the understandable push for vaccination, there are patches in the African sub-continent which are still relatively immune from the virus even without vaccination. The data which the media feeds is often focussed on territories where tools of analysis can be applied. The territories outside this framework of analysis are large. This would definitionally make a global pattern reading a huge challenge. Add to this the normal economic need of food, shelter and clothing. They have their own logic and one could say compulsions. In the case of India, the growth rate between 2019 and 2020 has been five per cent. In the preceding five years, it was seven per cent. If the forecasts have to be believed, the likely rate will probably go down for the current year to the lowest level since 1991. This kind of situation will have a direct or ripple effect,on everyone. Even the organisations, entities and business groups who have struck it rich in the last two years are going to be affected. Putting it simply, islands of prosperity will find it difficult to survive in a sea of deprivation and dissonance. While the above is a derivation of simple logic, in the present context, logic itself appears to be a bit of a casualty.

This is so because the tools to do a logical think-through are probably inadequate. The seemingly contradictory evidence which keeps surfacing, even with reference to the virus, will take time to settle down. The implications of that kind of situation are comprehensible for policy formulation. This holds true even in relatively removed sectors, like farming. There is no apparent correlation between the virus effect and the framing of the three farming laws. The withdrawal of the farming laws and the reasons which led to it are still in the domain of speculation, debate and what can at best be called my-guess-is-better-than-yours. Evidence-based policy formulation is not always possible in times such as the present one. The scientific method further goes for a bump in the absence of any precedence of the present context. Yet, this cannot be the reason for giving up an attempt to be logical. What one does know is that in the first wave of COVID-19 in India, around April 2020, there was evidence of a two-speed economy. During that time, the rural sector was flourishing. There was technology upgradation; low ticket electronic items graduated to become essential commodities; mobile phones moved centre stage. As compared to this, the urban sector was floundering. Interestingly, the agricultural/rural sector which had no restrictions and no hindrances registered a 3.6 per cent growth in that period. Where was the disruption? The best which can be said is that that the present situation is of work-in-progress.

(The writer is a well-known management consultant of international repute. The views expressed are personal.)