This year, India faces significant challenges to its foreign policy, particularly concerning SAARC nations and the increasing influence of China
The year 2024 is staring at current Indian Foreign Policy with multiple challenges and the growing influence of China may be worrisome because it is fast making inroads in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka which can be attributed to its dangerous ‘Debt Trap Policy’, Expansionism and allurement through The Belt and Road Initiative -One Belt One Road).
Foreign policy experts say that India is positioning itself as a major growing economic power in Asia vis-a-vis China though the gap is huge which is coupled with a growing geopolitical association with the United States, which too on equal terms, may checkmate China in 2024. America’s defence and economic colourations with India may further strengthen the bonds which will have its fallout on the world stage.
PAKISTAN TURMOIL
A cursory look at 2023 will exhibit that China was successful in moving forward on its Debt Trap Policy and Pakistan has been fully mauled and it may be impossible to come out of it in future. Prime Minister, Narender Modi had taken an initiative to smoothen ties with Pakistan and invited the then prime minister, Nawaz Sharif for a swearing-in ceremony in 2014 but a strong army foiled the attempt. The Chinese investment in Pakistan rose to $65 billion In 2022 and it had already acquired control of Gwadar Port on 16 May 2013. Originally valued at $46 billion, the value of China Pakistan Economic Corridor had been worth $62 billion as of 2020. In this way, chances of the release of Pakistan from the clutches of China seem to be remote but ensuing general elections in Pakistan in Feb 2024 may change the political landscape as chances of the return of Nawaz Sharif have brightened after the tactical support being lent to his party by the military establishment. Ex-PM has expressed his desire to have normal relations with India especially when the Imran Khan regime had taken the ties to the lowest level. If it happens then India must reciprocate as diplomacy never permits deadlock.
NEPAL, THE HIMALAYAN KINGDOM
China has emerged as the largest investor and trade partner of Nepal which has changed the contour of economic and diplomatic ties between the two countries. President Xi’s visit in Octo,2019 resulted in the signing of over a dozen agreements in various fields. China has invested more than USD 1.34 billion in Nepal and is pressing for the implementation of BRI. Nepal assumes a lot of relevance to India and the previous communist government headed by K.P.S Oli had tilted the balance in favour of Dragon but a new coalition government comprising of predominantly Nepali Congress and the communist faction of present PM, Prachanda has tried to repair the ties with India which are ages old. Now India has taken a lot of economic initiatives which include long-term trade deals, power purchase agreements, transit treaties etc. which might give a new dimension to the ties between the two countries. India should take this goodwill gesture to the next level in the new year. Nepal is expected to reciprocate the magnanimity and equal-term policy which will benefit the people of both nations. India will have to keep watch on any progress made in BRI which will be a security risk due to an open border of 1,770 Kms.
MALDIVES
China had spent USD 200 million on the Maldives-China Friendship bridge which had preceded investments since 2012 in various sectors like airlines, water projects, sewage treatment plants, and housing. Beijing now has leases on 17 of the 1,200 islands which
Constitute the entire Maldives and three largest Chinese projects together worth $1.5 billion thereby worth more than 40% of the Maldivian GDP2.The Chinese investment has crossed the mark of USD 970 million which may be beyond the repaying capacity of this poor country. The present Muizzu regime will try to minimize India's influence and encourage China to grow its influence.
OPTION WITH INDIA IN 2024
India had taken the logical step of announcing the largest civilian infrastructure project of USD 500 million having a 6.7-kilometre bridge and causeway that will link Malé with three nearby islands thereby overshadowing the Chinese bridge in length, scale and price. India is bound to be worried in the new year over the blatant tilting of the new president, Mohamed Muizzu who has decided to send back Indian troops currently stationed in the Indian Ocean archipelago which may create space for China in future. It is a move primarily aimed at reversing former president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s ‘India first’ policy. In yet another anti-India decision, the Muizzu government has decided against the renewal of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with India for cooperation in hydrography. The agreement was signed in 2019 and it is due to expire in 2024. At this juncture, it will be a big challenge to keep Muizzu engaged who had won the election with the slogan “India Out” and China had backed him to the hilt.
SRI LANKA
According to the annual report of the Bangladesh Bank, China invested 465.17 million USD (13.5 %% of total foreign direct investment in Bangladesh) and Hong Kong invested 179.22 million USD (5.2 %) during the financial year which took the total Chinese investment to 644.30 million USD. In the same manner, $4.5 billion has been invested by China in Hambantota which has created a lot of security concerns in New Delhi. However, China did not come up to the expectations of Sri Lanka when it was on the verge of economic collapse which allowed India to show magnanimity after burying the negativity of the regime. Experts say that there is a ray of hope for the continuation of Sri Lanka’s present warm ties with India which could be a fallout of open-hearted support and financial assistance of over USD 4 billion thereby surpassing the International Monetary Fund’s 48-month bailout package of USD 3 billion. Sri Lanka President, Rani Wickremesinghe who inclined China got a big shock when Dragon quietly refused to provide financial assistance which gave a chance to India to come to the rescue of the people of the beleaguered country. Given the new awakening of the Sri Lanka political regime, India should undertake measures to further improve its bilateral ties which may cause discomfort to China.
BANGLADESH
Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh has given a fillip to India’s relations which have acquired new dimensions during the past 15 years. India is expecting a comeback of Hasina’s party in forthcoming general elections in the early new year but if it does not happen then India will have to change track, especially given the suspicion and lack of trust of the opposition. Khalida Zia’s government in 2000 was full of animosity towards India hence there will be a dire need for a change of strategy to deal with the new regime which will benefit both countries. China has always shown keen interest in Bangladesh which is evident from its investment of USD 26 billion between 2016-22. Data shows that Beijing emerged as the country's largest FDI provider in Bangladesh as its investments topped almost US$1 billion, a 30 % increase from US$700 million in 2021 hence its next move will be dangerous if Hasina fails to return to power.
MYANMAR
India has kept military generals in good humour which is strategically essential but it might have done so at the cost of supporting the democratic forces after the coup in 2021. Analysts opine that China has fully supported the dictatorship in Myanmar besides helping ethnic militant groups. The United States and its allies are preoccupied with the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts which has left military rulers at their whims and fancy to crush the democratic forces. India will have to regain its prestige of openly keeping away from pro-democratic forces which are being crushed mercilessly and cruelly without pushing generals to the corner. Experts say that India will have to take care of China’s ‘two ocean strategy’ and its game plan of pushing through BRI and other infrastructure projects.
Bhutan has smooth relations with India but China’s growing influence could pose a security threat, especially in the Doklam plateau which happens to be a strategic area near the tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan. A standoff in 2017 preceding China’s attempt to construct the road in the disputed territory claimed by Bhutan had an alarming impact on India which was forced to stop this activity. India will have to take Bhutan seriously to keep it at bay from Chinese allurements.
Analysts opine that the China factor is also worrying for India in SAARC nations keeping in view its investments and indentures in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal, and Maldives were US$ 12.9 billion, US 3.11 billion, US 13.87 billion, US 210 million, US$ 1.34 billion, and US$ 970 million respectively which must warrant adoption of full proof strategy in 2024 to checkmate Dragon otherwise fallout will be serious.
(The writer is a political analyst and a senior journalist; views are personal)
