Where is the snow? Tourists have started asking travel agents to call off trips to hill destinations whether it is Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. The anticipated white blanket that tourists were eager to witness at tourist destinations such as Gulmarg and Pahalgam was disappointing as the region has received almost no snow while the hills have below-average snowfall.

Experts say that the El Nino effect is throwing spanners across the northwest Himalayas with an unusually dry winter and no immediate relief in the offing if one goes by the observation by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

It said that 2023 was the warmest-on-record year and the warming El Nino event is likely to further fuel the heat in 2024. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) too has attributed low snowfall to the absence of Western Disturbances (WDs). “Almost no major snowfall is likely till mid-January with even the expected January 9-10 WD not likely to help much,” it said.

 The El Nino phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than average in the eastern tropical Pacific, and there is a simultaneous weakening of trade winds. The absence of snowfall is not a one-time thing but affects the annual cycle of snow.

Reetu Jain, Director of Coterie Tours Pvt said that such unpredictable weather is not good for the tourism sector.  It has been a double whammy for the tour operators, particularly in North India. “In November we were facing a low turnout of international travellers due to the high rise in pollution. Many of our bookings could not take place or were postponed, especially elderly travelers who refrained themselves to North India. Now with almost nil snowfalls in the upper reaches of the Himalayas, newly married couples and those seeking adventures in snows too are having second thoughts about their plans of visiting the hilly tourist hotspots,” she added.

At the same time, glaciologist and Himalayan researcher A N Dimri told a news agency about the social and economic implications of poor snowfalls. “If it continues longer, it can have a huge cascading effect on socio-economic benefits. If you don’t get (enough) snow, you don’t get replenishment of water, it will impact agriculture, your health and can, in turn, impact your economy,” he said.

“Bizarre dry winters so far over hills due to prolonged dry spell & nothing major expected from upcoming Western Disturbance on 9-10th Jan,” amateur meteorologist ‘Weatherman Shubham’ posted on X on Saturday along with a photo of Kedarnath temple and surroundings sans any snow.  A picture showing Gulmarg  as a barren patch has also gone viral on social media with netizens blaming the rapid urbanization and high temperature-induced climate change for the “grim situation.” Gulmarg is a world-famous skiing resort, attracting hundreds of national and international skiers who travel to Kashmir for skiing adventures.

“So far several bookings have been canceled by the international skiers and if the situation remains the same, nobody will come here this season for skiing,” said Farhat Naik, a snowboarding instructor in Gulmarg. On social media, showing snowless scenes of Gulmarg, he said, “It’s heartbreaking to see Gulmarg in such conditions during this time of the year, especially if you have never witnessed something like this before. Indeed, the weather patterns have been quite erratic & unpredictable in recent years, leading to unusual occurrences like this,” he posted.

He said that the skiers have canceled the January slot as of now, and if there is snowfall, they might consider coming in February.

Scientists say that the replenishment of water sources for the southern Himalayan region will bear the brunt. “The water system will collapse. We are drifting towards living in a dryer system,” Dimri warned.

Not only India’s Himalayas, but the world saw another year full of extreme weather events resulting from climate change in 2022, from intense storms to soaring temperatures and rising sea levels. Antarctica was no exception, according to research last year.

“I hope that the public starts to see both the fragility and complexity of these polar regions,” said Rajashree Tri Datta, a research associate in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences who contributed to sections of the report related to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.